Week 1 is a hard week to bet because we know so little, but Week 2 is tough as well because of the chances we’re all going to just overreact to what happened in Week 1. These picks for Week 2 depend much more on our preseason projections and the knowledge that we have on how teams have played over the last couple of years plus offseason personnel and coaching changes.
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 at Tennessee Titans
This line seems way too low considering the difference between these two teams. The Rams ranked 10th in my preseason DVOA projections and won in Week 1. The Titans ranked 30th in my preseason DVOA projections and lost terribly in Week 1 with a league-low 2.4 yards per play. Matthew Stafford led the NFL with five “highlight throws” in Week 1 according to FTN Data charting. And the young Rams pass rush should get to Cam Ward consistently, making this a tough win for the Titans.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 at New York Jets
This seems to be an overreaction to Week 1. Yes, Justin Fields looked reasonable against a Steelers defense that’s supposed to be very good. Yes, the Bills defense had trouble with Lamar Jackson. However, we were already projecting some regression for the Steelers defense, and Lamar Jackson is Lamar Jackson. And it’s just one week! In the preseason, we had Buffalo second in our projections and the Jets 31st. Even on the road, the Bills should be touchdown favorites or more.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints Over 41.5
Yes, the 49ers have a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, the New Orleans Saints offense is not very good no matter who is playing quarterback. But the Saints defense also isn’t very good, and the 49ers defense is fairly mediocre as well with a lot of new players this year. Add in that this game is being played indoors, and this total seems too low.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Over 45.5
Atlanta’s preseason projection was to be 12th on offense and 31st on defense. The defense was a little better than that in Week 1, but we can’t jump to conclusions based on a single game. This is still a team that should be playing in a lot of shootouts. I think it’s more likely that we’re going to see the Vikings offense from the fourth quarter of their comeback win against the Bears rather than the offense from the first three quarters. And again, this is another game indoors, which means more scoring.
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Here’s a controversial bit from the preseason DVOA projections, where we had the Raiders actually come out higher than the Chargers. Both teams looked good in Week 1, although the Chargers obviously looked good against a tougher opponent in the defending AFC champion Chiefs. Still, Geno Smith and Pete Carroll give the Raiders base competence, and the win over the Patriots showed their defense might be a little underrated. Add in home-field advantage, and I like their chances to keep the late Monday Night Football doubleheader game close even if the Chargers walk away with a win.
