College football bowl projections for Week 13: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama vying for 8-9 matchup originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The 8-9 game is the most-interesting piece of the College Football Playoff.
Much like basketball, it’s the matchup of two teams capable of getting to the next weekend at the expense of the No. 1 seed. Ohio State proved that last year. The Buckeyes were the No. 8 seed and routed No. 9 Tennessee 42-17 in the first round.
That momentum continued in a 41-21 demolition of Oregon in the Rose Bowl. From there, the Buckeyes went on to a national championship.
Will Ohio State be on the other side of that this season? The Buckeyes have dominated the regular season, but an 8–9 game at this point will be some combination of Alabama, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. That will be a tough first matchup, and each of those teams could pull a quarterfinal upset.
The third set of College Football Playoff rankings was unveiled Tuesday. Sporting News will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the 12-team field on Dec. 7.
The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 19, and three on Saturday, Dec. 20.
The quarterfinals will be played at the Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The semifinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The CFP national championship is Jan. 19 in Miami.
Here are our bowl projections for Week 13.
College football bowl predictions 2025
There are 35 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups:
| DATE | BOWL | WEEK 13 PROJECTION |
| Dec. 13 | LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk | San Diego State vs. Washington State |
| Dec. 16 | IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl | Navy vs. Western Kentucky |
| Dec. 17 | StaffDNA Cure Bowl | Utah State vs. Southern Miss |
| Dec. 17 | 68 Ventures Bowl | Western Michigan vs. Old Dominion |
| Dec. 19 | Myrtle Beach Bowl | Buffalo vs. Arkansas State |
| Dec. 19 | Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl | Coastal Carolina vs. Baylor* |
| Dec. 22 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Toledo vs. New Mexico |
| Dec. 23 | Boca Raton Bowl | Texas State vs. UConn |
| Dec. 23 | R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Jacksonville State vs. Troy |
| Dec. 23 | Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl* | USF vs. Fresno State |
| Dec. 24 | Hawaii Bowl | North Texas vs. Hawaii |
| Dec. 26 | GameAbove Sports Bowl | Ohio vs. Northwestern |
| Dec. 26 | Rate Bowl | Nebraska vs. Arizona State |
| Dec. 26 | Servpro First Responder Bowl | UTSA vs. TCU |
| Dec. 27 | Go Bowling Military Bowl | East Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech |
| Dec. 27 | Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl | Rutgers vs. Duke |
| Dec. 27 | Wasabi Fenway Bowl | Tulane vs. NC State |
| Dec. 27 | Pop-Tarts Bowl | Arizona vs. Clemson |
| Dec. 27 | Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice | Central Michigan vs. UNLV |
| Dec. 27 | Isleta New Mexico Bowl | FIU vs. Boise State |
| Dec. 27 | Taxslayer Gator Bowl | Kentucky vs. Florida State |
| Dec. 27 | Texas Bowl | Houston vs. SMU |
| Dec. 29 | Birmingham Bowl | Memphis vs. Wake Forest |
| Dec. 30 | Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl | Army vs. Iowa State |
| Dec. 30 | Transperfect Music City Bowl | Illinois vs. Pitt |
| Dec. 30 | Valero Alamo Bowl | USC vs. BYU |
| Dec. 31 | Reliaquest Bowl | LSU vs. Iowa |
| Dec. 31 | Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl | Utah vs. Louisville |
| Dec. 31 | Cheez-It Citrus Bowl | Michigan vs. Texas |
| Dec. 31 | SDS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl | Missouri vs. Cal |
| Jan. 2 | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Minnesota vs. Temple |
| Jan. 2 | Autozone Liberty Bowl | Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt |
| Jan. 2 | Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Tennessee vs. Miami, Fla. |
| TBD | DirecTV Holiday Bowl | Washington vs. Virginia |
| TBD | Bahamas Bowl* | Kennesaw State vs. Miami, Ohio |
College Football Playoff first-round predictions
A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 19 | First-Round CFP game | No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Texas Tech |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 5 Oregon |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss |
That 8-9 game could flip with the Irish and Sooners as far as who plays at home. Imagine the circus around an Alabama-Ole Miss matchup, especially given the increased attention on Lane Kiffin. Texas Tech could still easily bump into a first-round bye.
MORE:Why James Franklin is perfect fit to revive Virginia Tech
College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 31 | Cotton Bowl Classic (quarterfinal) | No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Texas Tech |
| Jan. 1 | Capital One Orange Bowl (quarterfinal) | No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Oregon |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (quarterfinal) | No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Notre Dame |
| Jan. 1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl (quarterfinal) | No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Alabama |
This is an elite quarterfinal round. Ohio State and Notre Dame in a rematch of last year’s CFP championship game would be amazing. Texas A&M and Alabama did not play in the regular season. Georgia and Oregon would be the second time Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning have met since Lanning took the Oregon job. The Ducks have come a long way since that 49-3 loss on Sept. 3, 2022. Why do we feel like Texas Tech-Indiana would be the most-fun matchup of the bunch?
MORE:College football picks, predictions for Week 13
College Football Playoff semifinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 8 | Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal) | No. 5 Texas Tech at No. 1 Ohio State |
| Jan. 9 | Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (semifinal) | No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 10 Alabama |
This would be a huge moment for the Big 12. The Buckeyes and Red Raiders rank first and third, respectively, in scoring defense. In this scenario, Georgia and Alabama would not play in the SEC championship game. Those two schools have played in the SEC championship game or CFP six times since 2012, and the Crimson Tide has a 5-1 advantage in those games.
College Football Playoff championship pick
A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 19 | CFP National championship | No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia |
What’s old is new again. The Buckeyes and Bulldogs have combined to win three of the last four national championships and arguably the most-memorable playoff game of the last four years was their 42-41 thriller on Dec. 31, 2022.
