Tom Brady’s retirement didn’t derail the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’ve got just as many division titles with Baker Mayfield at quarterback as they did with the seven-time Super Bowl winner behind center.
That’s given the rest of the NFC South something to shoot for. The Atlanta Falcons have retooled under a new quarterback, hoping a big outlay for young, explosive pass rushers pays off. The Carolina Panthers will look to keep Bryce Young’s late-2024 resurgence rolling with an upgraded receiving corps. The New Orleans Saints will play 17 games of professional football!
That leaves the South relatively open, even if Tampa is a modest favorite to make it five straight NFC South championships. Can Michael Penix Jr. bring Atlanta to the postseason for the first time since 2017? Are the Panthers really trending upward, or was 2024’s finish an illusion? Can the Saints shock the world with a playoff run in what looks like a rebuilding year?
Let’s take a look at each team in the NFC South, rolling back through this summer’s 32-team previews to go beyond the depth chart. Teams are listed in alphabetical order by location.
Atlanta Falcons
Biggest question to answer in 2025: Can Michael Penix Jr. be the franchise quarterback they need?
Across five games — three starts — Penix notched 0.167 expected points added (EPA) per dropback. That was 10th best among all NFL quarterbacks who played at least 100 snaps last season. But two of those starts came against the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers and came with below average counting stats, leaving plenty of room to doubt his small sample size.
Fortunately, with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and whatever remains of Kyle Pitts’ potential on the roster, there’s a soft landing spot for year two. Penix’s rookie campaign showcased the arm strength to wing balls into tight windows along the sideline. 16.2 percent of his throws as a rookie were deep shots, per SIS, which a higher rate than Josh Allen threw (14.2) while leading the league in throws at least 20 yards downfield. The green light will be on for Penix in year two; will opposing defenses have figured it out?
Potential weakness: The defensive front (particularly up the middle)
The Falcons invested heavily to punch up a unit that finished 31st in the NFL in both sacks and pressure rate last fall. Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. will bring value in the pass rush, but they may not get a ton of help. Troy Andersen’s injury and continued inability to turn potential into production has turned the keys over to Divine Deablo and Kaden Elliss at linebacker. David Onyemata is on the wrong side of 30 years old, Brandon Dorlus played 19 defensive snaps as a fourth round rookie last season and Ruke Orhorhoro needs to live up to his second-round draft billing from 2024.
Most important newcomer: LB Jalon Walker
The versatility and pass rushing capability in Walker’s game gives him a little Micah Parsons to his NFL projection. That would be a godsend for the Falcons, who have ranked 31st, 21st, 31st, and 32nd in team sacks the last four seasons. But even if Walker fills an off-ball role in stretches he’d be a boon — per Pro Football Reference, 12 different defenders had a missed tackle rate of 10 percent or higher. Walker had 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks his final season at Georgia.
Overlooked gem: LB Kaden Elliss
The former seventh-round pick has settled in as a veteran starter since signing with the Falcons in 2023. While he plays primarily as an off-ball linebacker, he excels as a blitzer. His five sacks were third-best on a deficient pass rush last fall, but his 3.2 percent sack rate was tops among the team’s starters and tied with or better than full-time pass rushers like Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks), Micah Parsons (12) and Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5).
That makes him an occasionally devastating presence against the pass, even if he’s below average in coverage (a 98.8 passer rating allowed and +4.5 EPA when targeted. It’s unlikely that will change in his age 30 season, but Elliss remains a downfield missile and is coming off the lowest missed tackle rate (4.4 percent) of his career. He’s Atlanta’s not-so-secret weapon when it comes to generating negative plays.
Carolina Panthers
Biggest question to answer in 2025: Can Dave Canales really pull this off?
Bryce Young’s EPA per dropback as a rookie: -0.178. Bryce Young’s EPA/dropback the first half of 2024: -0.26. Bryce Young’s EPA/dropback the second half of 2024: 0.141. That’s a remarkable turnaround. Now Young gets the strongest wideout corps of his career with the arrival of Tetairoa McMillan.
There’s opportunity to be found in the NFC South. Now Young gets the chance to seize it with what could be the first true WR1 of his NFL career. McMillan isn’t just a receiver but a massive catch radius circle downfield who has the awareness, length and separation skill to snags any ball that drops into his range. More importantly, he allows guys like Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, David Moore and, uh, Jimmy Horn Jr.? the chance to thrive in supporting roles rather than trying to do everything at once.
Potential weakness: About 70 percent of the defense
Let’s give Young the benefit of the doubt; he improved significantly over the back half of head coach Canales’ debut season. Now he’s got a big life raft in the form of McMillan to help bail him out of bad situations. The defense, however, can rely on Jaycee Horn and a back-from-injury Derrick Brown.
I’d put free agent addition Tre’Von Moehrig in the circle of trust as well. Everyone else in the lineup will be tasked with improving a defense that ranked 32nd in points allowed, yards given up and expected points added (EPA) allowed per play in 2025.
Most important newcomer: WR Tetairoa McMillan
Carolina made several upgrades to the league’s worst defense and could have six new starters this fall. No one may be more important to the team’s future, however, than their first-round wideout. McMillan is a boon for any quarterback, but especially for a rising Bryce Young. Young not only reclaimed his hold on the team’s starting position after a brutal start to his career, but emerged as a top 15 QB (in terms of EPA per dropback) over the last half of the season while throwing to Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, David Moore and an aging Adam Thielen. If McMillan showcases the range that made him a star at Arizona, he can jumpstart a Panthers’ revival.
Overlooked gem: WR Jalen Coker
Coker went undrafted out of Holy Cross, then burst onto the scene with a four-catch, 68-yard performance in his second game as a pro. Injury and a slow climb up a depleted depth chart limited him to only 11 games, but he averaged nearly 50 yards per game from Week 5 onward and helped Bryce Young rock his way out of the chasm he’d made spinning his tires through his 2023 debut and the first half of 2024.
Despite modest reps, Coker finished with 1.93 yards per route run (YPRR) — good for 45th among qualified wide receivers and ahead of players like DK Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy and Garrett Wilson. His 11.4 percent catch rate over expected (CROE) was fourth-best in the NFL, outdone only by Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown and, surprisingly, former teammate Adam Thielen (who Carolina traded away, in part. due to Coker’s presence in the lineup). McMillan’s arrival should allow him to continue to thrive in the intermediate range (only 8.7 percent of his routes last season were deep balls) and help give him an edge in an offense that will also have 2024 first-round pick Legette, Moore and Horn Jr. competing for snaps.
New Orleans Saints
Biggest question to answer in 2025: Is a hard reset finally, mercifully on the way?
General manager Mickey Loomis’ buy now, pay later approach to the salary cap kept a good team intact through the end of the Drew Brees era. But Brees has been retired since 2021 and the Saints are 30-38 in the four seasons since with zero playoff appearances. The upcoming season looks like it will extend that drought following Derek Carr’s surprising retirement, which turned the reins at quarterback over to 2024 fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler
New Orleans is slated to hit 2026 an estimated $25 million over next year’s salary cap. Will a second-straight crashout provide the fuel needed for the franchise to cut bait on the expensive veteran contracts limiting the team’s ability to build depth in free agency (in true Loomis form, the vast majority of the team’s cost-saving moves would have to be spread over the next two seasons as post-June 1 releases)? Or would Rattler or rookie second-round pick Tyler Shough exceeding expectations and getting this team back to its seven-to-10 win stasis provide enough proof for the franchise to stay the course?
Potential weakness: Quarterback
Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler, with Jake Haener and Hunter Dekkers on the practice squad. That’s the depth chart, in no particular order. Oof.
Most important newcomer: QB Tyler Shough
Shough, a second-round pick, had a clear path to the starting job but couldn’t wrestle it away from Rattler. That’s, uh, not ideal.
But if 2025 is going to have a silver lining, it could come from the soon-to-be 26-year-old rookie. Shough rode some pre-draft hype to a second round selection, but has largely looked like the useful, but not spectacular, quarterback he was in college. He threw a single touchdown pass in 54 preseason attempts, looking more like the guy who was totally fine at Texas Tech than the honorable mention All-ACC quarterback he was in 2024 at Louisville. That makes a 2025 rise unlikely, but the Saints have to hope a lottery ticket cashes this fall to make the upcoming season tolerable.
Overlooked gem: EDGE Chase Young
The 2020 second overall pick has vacillated between over- and under-rated in his NFL journey. After playing the first 17-game season of his career last fall, he’s trending toward the former. Though he didn’t start a single game and finished the year with 5.5 sacks, the underlying numbers suggest the 26-year-old could earn the first double-digit sack season of his six-year career.
Young’s 16.2 percent pressure rate last fall ranked seventh among defensive linemen. His 1.2 percent sack rate? 54th. That led to a career-high 21 quarterback hits, which was as many as Kyle Van Noy had in his 12.5-sack 2024. Bright spots may be few and far between for New Orleans this fall. If Young can build on his 2024 and convert some of that pressure into sacks, he’ll be the silver lining.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest question to answer in 2025: Can new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard keep Baker Mayfield rolling?
Dave Canales started Baker Mayfield’s revival. Rhode Island high school football legend ™ Liam Coen pushed it to new heights. That earned each young(ish) assistant head coaching jobs. Now Grizzard steps into this star-making role as Tampa Bay’s new playcaller.
Grizzard’s main advantage comes in the form of a stacked receiving corps. Even if Mike Evans slows in his age 32 season, first-round pick Emeka Egbuka and the useful Jalen McMillan — eight touchdowns despite a below average 1.28 yards per route run as a rookie — are capable of lightening his load. Bucky Irving topped 1,100 rushing yards as a rookie and his 186 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were a top 10 mark among tailbacks. With a young, powerful offensive line, Tampa Bay has a remarkable support system in place for Mayfield. Can Grizzard push him to another 4,500-yard, 40 touchdown campaign?
Potential weakness: Linebacker
Lavonte David may well play until the heat death of the universe. Still, he’s 35 years old and has more than 200 NFL games under his belt. If he loses a step, Tampa will be relying on guys like SirVocea Dennis, Deion Jones and John Bullock to step up. That’s an invitation to attack the middle of the field. If it means drawing Antoine Winfield closer to the line of scrimmage for support it also takes him away from being the big play eraser he’s meant to be.
Most important newcomer: EDGE Haason Reddick
Tampa Bay’s 35.8 percent pressure rate ranked eighth in the NFL, which seems great before you realize it lags behind the club’s 36.5 percent blitz rate — third-highest in 2024. The Bucs’ edge rushers were useful in creating chaos — this helped Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea combine for 14.5 sacks up front — but struggled to get to the quarterback themselves.
The hope is Reddick can be a closer, even after a wasted 2024 following his contract holdout with the Jets. Though he had just one sack in 393 snaps last season, his 13.5 percent pressure rate was in line with his 11-sack 2023 with the Eagles (and roughly in line with Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Greenard’s numbers for 2024).
Overlooked gem: OT Luke Goedeke
Goedeke gets overshadowed because he isn’t even the best tackle on his team. That’s the peril of playing with Tristan Wirfs, who has laid the foundation of a Hall of Fame career over his first five seasons. Goedeke merely a top 25-ish tackle (and is now getting paid like one after a late $90 million extension) instead of the arguable No. 1 overall, so he tends to fall by the wayside when talking about the Bucs offense.
However, Goedeke has quietly thrived on Sundays. Despite questions about whether his length would hold up at the next level, the former Division III recruit has the quickness of a converted tight end and uses it in space. Vast improvements on the interior of the line have keyed a revival in Tampa Bay’s run game, but Goedeke’s presence is a big reason why the 2022 Buccaneers ranked 32nd in yards before contact per carry (2.1) and the 2024 version ranked sixth (2.8). On top of that, Pro Football Focus credited him with three sacks allowed and zero quarterback hits given up in 542 pass blocking snaps last fall. He’s not Wirfs, but he’s pretty dang good.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 2025 NFC South preview: A den of intrigue (not you, Saints)
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