The Vagabond News – By Sudhir Choudhary
21 November 2025
Exclusive: U.S. war game envisions chaos if Nicolás Maduro is ousted
An internal war-gaming exercise conducted by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) has projected severe instability in Venezuela in a scenario where President Nicolás Maduro is removed from power. The “what-if” simulation foresees not a swift transition, but rather a trajectory marked by fragmentation, criminal escalation and regional spill-over. (Substack)
Key findings of the war game
- The exercise, held under DoD auspices and involving analysts specializing in Latin America, treated the ouster of Maduro as a trigger event rather than the solution. It emphasised that any sudden power vacuum could be quickly filled by a mixture of drug cartels, insurgent networks and opportunistic militia groups. (Substack)
- One predicted outcome: “anarchisation” — a term used in the simulation to describe urban breakdown, armed gangs and a collapse of rule of law in Caracas and other major cities. (SpyTalk)
- The war game underscored that removing Maduro without a credible successor or security transition plan would force the United States and its partners into a long-term stabilisation commitment — far exceeding any brief strike or limited operation. (Substack)
Strategic implications for U.S. policymakers
- The war game acts as a stark caution: regime change in Venezuela could require a sustained occupation or intervention to stabilise the country and prevent “worst-case” outcomes. Without this, the U.S. risks becoming mired in a Venezuelan version of Iraq or Afghanistan.
- It reinforces that military pressure alone — such as naval deployments or surging forces in the Caribbean — may be insufficient. Analysts say the U.S. must consider political transitions, reconstruction, and regional diplomacy if it truly aims to replace the Maduro regime. (SpyTalk)
- The simulation also underscores the significance of non-state actors (cartels, paramilitaries) in the Venezuelan context. These groups were projected to fill power vacuums rapidly, complicating any clean transfer of power.
Reaction from Venezuelan government & regional actors
- The Maduro regime has long warned of U.S. intervention and has mobilised militias, emphasised anti-U.S. rhetoric and reinforced Cuba/Russia ties — reflecting some of the dynamics the war game anticipated. (EL PAÍS English)
- Regional governments and analysts now view the possibility of a power shift with increased concern about refugee flows, cross-border insecurity and the collapse of oil production.
- The war game’s findings may complicate U.S. messaging: While some in Washington call for regime change, the simulation suggests that without a credible exit strategy, chaos may be the result.
What to watch going forward
- Will the U.S. government publicly acknowledge or prepare for the risks outlined in the war game? The existence of the exercise was until now unreported.
- Whether any credible Venezuelan opposition actor or the Maduro administration offers a transition plan — and whether external actors (Russia, China, Cuba) commit to supporting stability.
- The pace and nature of any U.S. military or diplomatic action in the Caribbean region: deployments, strikes, base usage and regional cooperation could all signal whether the scenario is edging closer to reality.
- Monitoring Venezuela’s internal stability: militia movements, cartel-state links, breakdown in citizens’ services, and the erosion of state institutions may all be early warning signs of the simulation’s dire predictions.
In summary
The DoD’s exclusive war-game findings suggest that the removal of Nicolás Maduro would not end Venezuela’s crisis — it might open a far more dangerous chapter. Chaos, fragmentation, and prolonged U.S. entanglement loom if planning does not precede action. With that in mind, Washington’s next steps will matter perhaps even more than the objective itself.
