Political analyst Jai Mrug breaks down the Tamil Nadu “number game”, explaining why an 8% vote share is the critical threshold for any new entrant to be electorally relevant in the state. Using simulations based on past performance and the 2024 civic polls, he examines how actor-politician Vijay’s vote base could shift outcomes – and why, contrary to conventional wisdom, his presence could hurt the DMK more than the AIADMK in certain urban and northern Tamil Nadu pockets, potentially leading to surprise results.
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