By Sudhir Choudhary | March 12, 2026
President Donald Trump’s call for Iranians to rise up against their government during the ongoing conflict has sparked debate among foreign-policy analysts, many of whom point to the historical lessons of the 1991 uprisings in Iraq as a cautionary example.
The appeal for internal resistance in Iran comes as U.S. and allied forces continue military operations targeting Iranian military infrastructure. Trump has publicly suggested that political change inside Iran could follow the conflict, encouraging opposition to challenge the country’s leadership.
However, analysts warn that calls for popular uprisings during wartime can carry unpredictable and potentially dangerous consequences.
Historical Parallel With the 1991 Iraq Uprisings
During the final phase of the 1991 Gulf War, the United States encouraged Iraqis to rise up against the government of Saddam Hussein. Messages broadcast to the Iraqi public urged citizens to overthrow the regime after the war against Iraq ended.
The calls helped trigger uprisings by Shia groups in southern Iraq and Kurdish forces in the north. But when the revolts began, U.S. forces did not intervene militarily to support them.
Iraqi government forces subsequently crushed the rebellions, leading to widespread reprisals and thousands of civilian deaths.
The episode has since been widely cited by historians and military analysts as a warning about encouraging rebellion without a clear plan to protect those who respond.
Risks of Regime Change Without a Clear Plan
Experts say that promoting regime change during a conflict can create a power vacuum or trigger violent internal struggles if existing authority collapses without a stable replacement.
Iran’s political system, dominated by religious leadership and powerful security institutions, is significantly more complex than many past regimes targeted for change.
Some analysts argue that calls for an uprising may encourage dissident groups inside Iran but also risk intensifying repression by government security forces.
Ongoing War Raises Strategic Questions
The broader strategic objective of the U.S. campaign against Iran remains a subject of debate in Washington and among international allies.
While the Trump administration has emphasized destroying Iran’s military capabilities and preventing nuclear development, officials have not publicly outlined a detailed post-conflict political plan for the country.
Foreign-policy analysts note that the experience of Iraq and other conflicts in the Middle East continues to shape discussions about the risks associated with regime-change strategies.
As the war unfolds, questions remain about whether internal opposition movements in Iran could play a role in determining the country’s political future.
Sources: BBC analysis by Jeremy Bowen; Associated Press; Reuters; historical records of the 1991 Iraqi uprisings; U.S. foreign policy research reports.
Tags: Iran War, President Donald Trump, Middle East Conflict, Iraq 1991 Uprising, Regime Change Debate
News by The Vagabond News.
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