Iran War Could Trigger Food Shortages in Africa, Fertiliser Giant Warns

Oslo, Norway / Nairobi, Kenya — May 2, 2026

The ongoing conflict involving Iran could lead to significant food shortages across Africa, according to the chief executive of Yara International, the world’s largest fertiliser producer. The warning highlights growing concerns that disruptions in global fertiliser supply chains may escalate into a wider food security crisis.

Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, stated that the war has already caused severe interruptions in fertiliser production and distribution, potentially triggering what he described as a “global auction” for limited supplies—pricing out poorer regions, particularly in Africa. (The Guardian)

Fertiliser Supply Disruptions Raise Alarm

According to industry data and international reports, the conflict has disrupted key supply routes, especially through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global fertiliser trade. The disruption has significantly reduced the availability of essential inputs such as ammonia and urea—core components required for modern agriculture.

Prices for urea, one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilisers, have surged by approximately 60–70% since the conflict intensified. (The Guardian) These increases are already affecting farmers worldwide, with many unable to afford the higher costs.

Holsether warned that reduced fertiliser usage could lead directly to lower crop yields, raising the risk of food shortages in regions heavily dependent on imports. Africa, which imports tens of millions of tonnes of fertiliser annually, is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. (Pan African Review)

Africa’s Growing Vulnerability

Several African nations—including Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda—rely heavily on fertiliser imports from the Middle East. Disruptions in supply chains have already led to reduced shipments and rising costs, particularly during critical planting seasons.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that restricted access to fertilisers could lower agricultural output in developing regions, worsening food insecurity. (Reuters)

Experts note that unlike wealthier regions such as Europe, where governments have introduced subsidies to support farmers, many African countries lack the financial capacity to cushion the impact. This disparity could widen global inequalities in food access.

Holsether further cautioned that up to “10 billion meals a week” could be affected globally due to reduced fertiliser availability if the conflict continues. (AgTechNavigator.com)

Broader Global Impact on Food Systems

The implications of the fertiliser crisis extend beyond Africa. Analysts warn that reduced fertiliser application could impact global crop production cycles, particularly for staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice.

While immediate food supplies remain relatively stable due to existing reserves, the effects are expected to become more pronounced in upcoming harvest seasons. (Reuters) Lower yields could lead to higher food prices worldwide and intensify pressure on already fragile economies.

The World Food Programme has previously indicated that prolonged disruptions in fertiliser supply could significantly increase the number of people facing acute food insecurity globally.

What Remains Uncertain

Despite mounting warnings, several uncertainties remain. It is unclear how long the conflict involving Iran will continue, and whether global supply chains can stabilize in the near term.

Additionally, no comprehensive international response plan has yet been announced to address fertiliser shortages in vulnerable regions. While some countries are seeking alternative suppliers, analysts note that global capacity constraints may limit short-term solutions.

The Vagabond News Perspective

The warning from Yara International underscores the interconnected nature of global supply chains, where geopolitical conflicts can rapidly translate into humanitarian risks. Africa’s dependence on imported agricultural inputs leaves it disproportionately exposed to such shocks. Without coordinated international intervention and support mechanisms, the fertiliser crisis could evolve into a broader food emergency affecting millions.